Andy Tenenbaum's current electoral vote map & article

[ailsagirl]

Last edited Thu Oct 4, 2012, 08:19 PM - Edit history (3)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct04.html


Electoral votes:

Obama: 332
Nitt: 206

Andy Tenenbaum's article:
=snip=

Political journalists tend to live for the moment and think whatever happened yesterday is the beginning and end of the universe. It's not. Here are five takeaways from the National Journal.

•Journalists love a story with a clear winner and loser, but campaigns are more complicated
•Obama will learn from his mistakes and will come out fighting next time
•Romney has run a poor campaign and will make mistakes, too
•Other events in the world could take the focus off the debates
•The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney

=snip=

[ailsagirl]

1. kick

Before it's buried

[truebrit71]

2. K&R for the hand-wringing, end-of-the-world, 'oh noes were screwn' crowd...

...

[NYC_SKP]

3. Maybe DU will believe Andy...

Last edited Thu Oct 4, 2012, 08:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Because a monumental amount of sanity has left this forum.

[ailsagirl]

5. That's kind of expected, though

It was a shock-- both Nitt for being so aggressive and the President for being so passive.

We're still mulling that over.

But I expect things will be far different from here on out.

[Hutzpa]

4. Nate Dawg is being a little nice there

he forget to mention about Romney outright lying.

[gcomeau]

7. He's judgement neutral...

...in anything he writes related to the election analysis. He tends to always keep things to the numbers and things that impact the numbers.

I'm sure he has his opinions on Romney's honesty but unless they visibly begin impacting polling specifically don't expect Silver to say much about it. He clearly tries to keep all extraneous info out of his stats analysis. And it's a good thing for him to do that.

[Panasonic]

22. +1

That's why I trust Nate Silver with the number crunching and his electoral analysis.

If Nate says Obama is slated to win (and by his numbers, it's already past 80%) then Obama should be able to win.

[Hutzpa]

32. Good point

nt.

[uponit7771]

6. +1!

[Glitterati]

8. people still like Obama and dislike Romney

YES!

Frankly, after watching that rude ass SOB, the dislike of Robme should get bigger.

[ailsagirl]

9. kick

[Tx4obama]

10. Huh? The link you posted in the OP is NOT Nate Silver's page, see below

Nate Silver is here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[rocktivity]

23. Why is Nate's site going to

Http/1.1 Service Unavailable

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


rocktivity

[Tx4obama]

34. Nate's page at FiveThirtyEight is working now. n/t

[byeya]

11. From what I've read, Obama supporters are still Obama supporters even in the swing states

so it's not much of a loss.
Also, the lies are catching up with Miffers today even if Obama wouldn't call him on them last night.

[RichGirl]

12. The assumption is that there are a slew of undecideds out there...

...who will be swayed by debates. As Bill Maher says in this "new rules" we give them way too much credit.

I'm a political junkie, yet I find debates in general boring. I have a hard time believing that people who have so little interest that they haven't even made a decision are watching debates and hanging on every word. More likely these people were watching the Kardashians or other mindless TV last night.

[FailureToCommunicate]

20. Your post makes me feel better about the debate...

though not better about the nincompoop "undecideds" who will swing this election.

Our only hope is to GOTV in such numbers that the numbers of mealy-middle-grounder-low-information voters are overwhelmed.

LOVE that Bill Maher segment.

[Spider Jerusalem]

13. electoral-vote.com isn't Nate Silver, it's Andy Tenenbaum

who is a US citizen living abroad (in the Netherlands), and a professor of computer science at Vrije University (and the creator of the Minix operating system that Linus Torvalds used as the basis of the Linux kernel).

[muriel_volestrangler]

17. And the National Journal points are by Ron Fournier, not exactly a favorite on DU (nt)

[DemKittyNC]

14. I agree with this

and I am so proud of my President last night. I think he just chilled out and let Twit Witt hang himself. I saw nothing wrong with it at all.

[ailsagirl]

15. The more I think about it, the more I agree

The President was in fine fettle today on the campaign trail: the crowds responsive, he was grinning from ear to ear-- everything back to normal!

[demgrrrll]

16. kick

[SidDithers]

18. "The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney "...

Sid

[ailsagirl]

19. And that really is the bottom line.

[Odd Won Out]

21. Nate Silver always seems to boil it down

without emotion. Love that nerd.

He is kind of like the anti-Mathews, although I find Mathews very entertaining.

With so few undecided voters in this election, I think only a major gaffe from Obama could flip weak Obama supporters over to Romney, or suppress turnout.

Be that as it may, I hope Obama shows more passion for his convictions in the next debate. The contrast with his soaring speeches made his detachment in the debate amplified, IMHO.

Some say that Dukakis' dispassionate reaction in a debate to the hypothetical about his wife being raped sealed his fate, although if I remember right, he had an uphill battle that only a great debate performance and a George HW Bush gaffe could possibly move the polls enough for him to win.

[Dalai_1]

24. Kick & R n/t

[Tx4obama]

25. * * * * * * * * * * * * The text in the OP is NOT from Nate Silver * * * * * * * * * *

Please edit your OP to reflect the truth.

Thanks

[Hutzpa]

33. uh oh

you mean we've bought into another Romney performance? ouch!

[southernyankeebelle]

26. Jennifer Granholm said Obama would lose the first debate. I guess she was right.

But then again its kind of hard to debate a serial liar.

[Blue Yorker]

27. This thread is just weird

Nate Silver said what you wrote? or you said it? Why do you link to a site that has nothing to do with what Nate may or may not have said?

[proReality]

30. Click on the link and scroll down the page. n/t

[Tx4obama]

31. There is NOTHING there from Nate Silver. The article text in OP is from Andy Tenenbaum

See comment #13

[skeewee08]

28. "The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney"

[OmahaBlueDog]

29. Obama didn't perform well, but said little that will bite him in the ass, OTOH..

Rmoney was stupid to make the PBS comment. Even if that's something you support, he is now the candidate who wants to kill Big Bird & Elmo.

[ailsagirl]

35. As Shakespeare has it:

"Though this be madness, yet there is method in't."

There's something afoot with Team Obama and I think it's going to prove to be huge. Just a feeling.