HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Andy Tenenbaum's current ...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:04 PM

Andy Tenenbaum's current electoral vote map & article

Last edited Thu Oct 4, 2012, 08:19 PM - Edit history (3)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct04.html


Electoral votes:

Obama: 332
Nitt: 206

Andy Tenenbaum's article:
=snip=

Political journalists tend to live for the moment and think whatever happened yesterday is the beginning and end of the universe. It's not. Here are five takeaways from the National Journal.

•Journalists love a story with a clear winner and loser, but campaigns are more complicated
•Obama will learn from his mistakes and will come out fighting next time
•Romney has run a poor campaign and will make mistakes, too
•Other events in the world could take the focus off the debates
•The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney

=snip=

35 replies, 6256 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 35 replies Author Time Post
Reply Andy Tenenbaum's current electoral vote map & article (Original post)
ailsagirl Oct 2012 OP
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #1
truebrit71 Oct 2012 #2
NYC_SKP Oct 2012 #3
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #5
Hutzpa Oct 2012 #4
gcomeau Oct 2012 #7
Panasonic Oct 2012 #22
Hutzpa Oct 2012 #32
uponit7771 Oct 2012 #6
Glitterati Oct 2012 #8
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #9
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #10
rocktivity Oct 2012 #23
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #34
byeya Oct 2012 #11
RichGirl Oct 2012 #12
FailureToCommunicate Oct 2012 #20
Spider Jerusalem Oct 2012 #13
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #17
DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #14
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #15
demgrrrll Oct 2012 #16
SidDithers Oct 2012 #18
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #19
Odd Won Out Oct 2012 #21
Dalai_1 Oct 2012 #24
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #25
Hutzpa Oct 2012 #33
southernyankeebelle Oct 2012 #26
Blue Yorker Oct 2012 #27
proReality Oct 2012 #30
Tx4obama Oct 2012 #31
skeewee08 Oct 2012 #28
OmahaBlueDog Oct 2012 #29
ailsagirl Oct 2012 #35

Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:07 PM

1. kick

Before it's buried

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:08 PM

2. K&R for the hand-wringing, end-of-the-world, 'oh noes were screwn' crowd...

...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:10 PM

3. Maybe DU will believe Andy...

Last edited Thu Oct 4, 2012, 08:38 PM - Edit history (1)

Because a monumental amount of sanity has left this forum.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NYC_SKP (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:11 PM

5. That's kind of expected, though

It was a shock-- both Nitt for being so aggressive and the President for being so passive.

We're still mulling that over.

But I expect things will be far different from here on out.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:11 PM

4. Nate Dawg is being a little nice there

he forget to mention about Romney outright lying.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Hutzpa (Reply #4)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:55 PM

7. He's judgement neutral...

...in anything he writes related to the election analysis. He tends to always keep things to the numbers and things that impact the numbers.

I'm sure he has his opinions on Romney's honesty but unless they visibly begin impacting polling specifically don't expect Silver to say much about it. He clearly tries to keep all extraneous info out of his stats analysis. And it's a good thing for him to do that.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to gcomeau (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:57 PM

22. +1

 

That's why I trust Nate Silver with the number crunching and his electoral analysis.

If Nate says Obama is slated to win (and by his numbers, it's already past 80%) then Obama should be able to win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to gcomeau (Reply #7)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:21 PM

32. Good point

nt.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 04:52 PM

6. +1!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:01 PM

8. people still like Obama and dislike Romney

YES!

Frankly, after watching that rude ass SOB, the dislike of Robme should get bigger.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:06 PM

9. kick

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:09 PM

10. Huh? The link you posted in the OP is NOT Nate Silver's page, see below

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tx4obama (Reply #10)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:00 PM

23. Why is Nate's site going to

Http/1.1 Service Unavailable

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/


rocktivity

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to rocktivity (Reply #23)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:25 PM

34. Nate's page at FiveThirtyEight is working now. n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:09 PM

11. From what I've read, Obama supporters are still Obama supporters even in the swing states

 

so it's not much of a loss.
Also, the lies are catching up with Miffers today even if Obama wouldn't call him on them last night.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:12 PM

12. The assumption is that there are a slew of undecideds out there...

...who will be swayed by debates. As Bill Maher says in this "new rules" we give them way too much credit.

I'm a political junkie, yet I find debates in general boring. I have a hard time believing that people who have so little interest that they haven't even made a decision are watching debates and hanging on every word. More likely these people were watching the Kardashians or other mindless TV last night.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to RichGirl (Reply #12)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:37 PM

20. Your post makes me feel better about the debate...

though not better about the nincompoop "undecideds" who will swing this election.

Our only hope is to GOTV in such numbers that the numbers of mealy-middle-grounder-low-information voters are overwhelmed.

LOVE that Bill Maher segment.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:12 PM

13. electoral-vote.com isn't Nate Silver, it's Andy Tenenbaum

who is a US citizen living abroad (in the Netherlands), and a professor of computer science at Vrije University (and the creator of the Minix operating system that Linus Torvalds used as the basis of the Linux kernel).

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Spider Jerusalem (Reply #13)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:27 PM

17. And the National Journal points are by Ron Fournier, not exactly a favorite on DU (nt)

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:13 PM

14. I agree with this

and I am so proud of my President last night. I think he just chilled out and let Twit Witt hang himself. I saw nothing wrong with it at all.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DemKittyNC (Reply #14)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:26 PM

15. The more I think about it, the more I agree



The President was in fine fettle today on the campaign trail: the crowds responsive, he was grinning from ear to ear-- everything back to normal!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:27 PM

16. kick

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:28 PM

18. "The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney "...



Sid

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SidDithers (Reply #18)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:32 PM

19. And that really is the bottom line.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 05:55 PM

21. Nate Silver always seems to boil it down

without emotion. Love that nerd.

He is kind of like the anti-Mathews, although I find Mathews very entertaining.

With so few undecided voters in this election, I think only a major gaffe from Obama could flip weak Obama supporters over to Romney, or suppress turnout.

Be that as it may, I hope Obama shows more passion for his convictions in the next debate. The contrast with his soaring speeches made his detachment in the debate amplified, IMHO.

Some say that Dukakis' dispassionate reaction in a debate to the hypothetical about his wife being raped sealed his fate, although if I remember right, he had an uphill battle that only a great debate performance and a George HW Bush gaffe could possibly move the polls enough for him to win.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:01 PM

24. Kick & R n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:05 PM

25. * * * * * * * * * * * * The text in the OP is NOT from Nate Silver * * * * * * * * * *


Please edit your OP to reflect the truth.

Thanks





Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Tx4obama (Reply #25)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:23 PM

33. uh oh

you mean we've bought into another Romney performance? ouch!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:19 PM

26. Jennifer Granholm said Obama would lose the first debate. I guess she was right.

 

But then again its kind of hard to debate a serial liar.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:25 PM

27. This thread is just weird

 

Nate Silver said what you wrote? or you said it? Why do you link to a site that has nothing to do with what Nate may or may not have said?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blue Yorker (Reply #27)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:03 PM

30. Click on the link and scroll down the page. n/t

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to proReality (Reply #30)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:14 PM

31. There is NOTHING there from Nate Silver. The article text in OP is from Andy Tenenbaum


See comment #13


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 06:55 PM

28. "The fundamentals are unchanged: people still like Obama and dislike Romney"

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ailsagirl (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 07:01 PM

29. Obama didn't perform well, but said little that will bite him in the ass, OTOH..

Rmoney was stupid to make the PBS comment. Even if that's something you support, he is now the candidate who wants to kill Big Bird & Elmo.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to OmahaBlueDog (Reply #29)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 08:45 PM

35. As Shakespeare has it:

"Though this be madness, yet there is method in't."

There's something afoot with Team Obama and I think it's going to prove to be huge. Just a feeling.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread