Nate Silver: Based on Historical Data, Romney can expect about a 2 point bump by next week

[berni_mccoy]

That's it. That's what Romney can expect to get for a bump based on the flash poll conducted by CNN. Note that Nate doesn't address the impact of CNN stacking the poll with southern conservative whites.

Here is the trend based on historical data (C = challenger, I = incumbent; Romney won the CNN flash poll by about 40 points)


Read the details here:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/oct-3-romneys-electoral-challenge-and-more-on-debate-instant-polls/

[Jennicut]

1. Sounds about right.

And depends on the polls you look at. I think the national polls will get even tighter. Maybe FL and VA. I still see Dems ahead in Ohio.

[graham4anything]

2. Obama never was suppose to win Florida in the first place, that he is leading goes to show Mitt won'

debates are meaningless

and Obama won the election weeks ago. Mitt just can't get it up anymore. 270 is out of reach.

Name me one Obama voter that has switched.
I look left, I look right, I look forward, not one voter at all.

so this is all folly.