Thu Oct 4, 2012, 01:19 AM
fearnobush (3,569 posts)
Debates aside - Let's not forget, Friday's unemployment numbers will be a game changer.
Much more so than this debate if they break higher or lower than expected. Currently, analysts estimate 115,000 new jobs will show for September. If that number is significantly higher, say 162,000, that would be a good number for the President. That also happens to be the same exact number the ADP released today for new private sector jobs. If the Fed number is higher, around 200,000, that number would likely bury Romney for good. Keep in mind, the ADP number is not a good indicator of what the Feds will state. It has an average difference of 56,000 jobs in either direction. Last month it posted a August jobs gain of 201,000. We all know how that turned out. However, that being said, the chances of that average 56,000 job discrepancy could easily mirror the exact opposite of what it did the previous month. Meaning a high number of over 170,000+ jobs.
Of course, we could get a really bad number as well, 50,000 - 60,000 and that, well we all know what will happen in that case. Keep in mind, the ISM index (service growth) rose unexpectedly to 55.1, the highest in six months and Manufacturing was up slightly for September, showing growth for the first time in three months. Additionally weekly unemployment claims dropped below 360,000 last week. these figures argue for a better number over a poor one. For our President's sake, Let's hope so.
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Debates aside - Let's not forget, Friday's unemployment numbers will be a game changer. (Original post)
|Drunken Irishman||Oct 2012||#1|
Response to fearnobush (Original post)
Thu Oct 4, 2012, 02:05 AM
BainsBane (24,079 posts)
4. It needs to be a reasonable number
Or the press will jump all over it to confirm their narrative of a Romney resurgence. They love a close horse race.