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Thu Oct 4, 2012, 01:19 AM

Debates aside - Let's not forget, Friday's unemployment numbers will be a game changer.

Much more so than this debate if they break higher or lower than expected. Currently, analysts estimate 115,000 new jobs will show for September. If that number is significantly higher, say 162,000, that would be a good number for the President. That also happens to be the same exact number the ADP released today for new private sector jobs. If the Fed number is higher, around 200,000, that number would likely bury Romney for good. Keep in mind, the ADP number is not a good indicator of what the Feds will state. It has an average difference of 56,000 jobs in either direction. Last month it posted a August jobs gain of 201,000. We all know how that turned out. However, that being said, the chances of that average 56,000 job discrepancy could easily mirror the exact opposite of what it did the previous month. Meaning a high number of over 170,000+ jobs.
Of course, we could get a really bad number as well, 50,000 - 60,000 and that, well we all know what will happen in that case. Keep in mind, the ISM index (service growth) rose unexpectedly to 55.1, the highest in six months and Manufacturing was up slightly for September, showing growth for the first time in three months. Additionally weekly unemployment claims dropped below 360,000 last week. these figures argue for a better number over a poor one. For our President's sake, Let's hope so.

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Reply Debates aside - Let's not forget, Friday's unemployment numbers will be a game changer. (Original post)
fearnobush Oct 2012 OP
Drunken Irishman Oct 2012 #1
liberal_at_heart Oct 2012 #2
budkin Oct 2012 #3
BainsBane Oct 2012 #4
fearnobush Oct 2012 #5

Response to fearnobush (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 01:22 AM

1. Anything above 100,000 is a win for Obama.

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Response to fearnobush (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 01:26 AM

2. I agree

This news will be much bigger than the debates.

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Response to fearnobush (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 01:31 AM

3. Gotten my hopes up too many times

Hopefully not worrying about it will produce better results

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Response to fearnobush (Original post)

Thu Oct 4, 2012, 02:05 AM

4. It needs to be a reasonable number

Or the press will jump all over it to confirm their narrative of a Romney resurgence. They love a close horse race.

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Response to fearnobush (Original post)

Sat Oct 6, 2012, 02:13 AM

5. Astoundingly, I failed to mention the actual unemployment rate.

I did suspect it would drop, but only to 8.%

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