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Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:01 PM

U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won

The team of Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley said if the election were held today, Obama would win 290 Electoral Votes, Mitt Romney 204. And the 42 toss-up Electoral Votes would not be enough to help Romney even if he took them all.

Theirs is the first to essentially declare Obama the winner and it comes after they switched several battleground states from toss-up to leaning Democrat, including Virginia, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada. The change mirrors new polling in those states and caps a two-week trend favoring Obama in state polls.

They caution that there are a few hurdles yet for Obama to clear, including the upcoming trio of presidential debates and continued bad economic reports. But they said those problems were only "theoretical" and concluded that "caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment."

What's more, with Obama's improving fortune is the likelihood he will have coattails for House and Senate candidates to grab onto. According to the new U.Va. analysis, the Senate looks to stay in Democratic hands and House Democrats will claw closer to control, but likely not win it.


http://washingtonexaminer.com/u.va.-analysis-obama-has-already-won/article/2509180#.UGx84H2UAqY

14 replies, 1477 views

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Arrow 14 replies Author Time Post
Reply U.Va. analysis: Obama has already won (Original post)
RandySF Oct 2012 OP
TBF Oct 2012 #1
JaneQPublic Oct 2012 #2
eissa Oct 2012 #3
Curtland1015 Oct 2012 #4
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #9
Phaerisee Oct 2012 #5
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #6
Lucinda Oct 2012 #10
oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #7
porphyrian Oct 2012 #8
nichomachus Oct 2012 #11
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #12
Mojorabbit Oct 2012 #13
MADem Oct 2012 #14

Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:02 PM

1. Larry's usually spot on and I think he is this time as well -

People just plain don't like Romney. Hardcore repugs will vote for him but he's so abrasive. That just does not play well with moderates.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:03 PM

2. That's assuming everyone votes. (nt)

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:06 PM

3. Ugh, I don't like this

I'm sorry, I hate playing the role of Debbie Downer, but I just hate this "we have it in the bag" meme. Maybe it's because I was just as confident in '04, and I NEVER want to have that feeling that I did the day after that election. The election is not today, it's a month away, which can be a lifetime in an election cycle. So much could happen between now and November, let's keep our guard up.

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Response to eissa (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:09 PM

4. Don't worry. We aren't going to forget to vote.

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Response to eissa (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:35 PM

9. I Never Felt Confident About 04

Kerry was constantly trailing, kind of like the way Willard is.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)


Response to Phaerisee (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:19 PM

6. They Applied Their Model Retroactively. This Is The First Time It's Being Used Proactively

.

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Response to Phaerisee (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:48 PM

10. The article is from August...long before Romney's recent gaffes. n/t

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:29 PM

7. Regardless of Obama's standing as of today

keep donating, registering voters, answering any questions they have, getting them to their polling place, anything you can to help down ticket races. Also, winning some of these toss-up states adds to the narrative that Obama's win can't be called illegitimate or stolen.

We have to crush these maggots once and for all.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 02:33 PM

8. Say it loud...! n/t

 

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 03:12 PM

11. The problem, of course, is that election is not going to be held today

These types of analyses are always stupid.

In politics, as the saying goes, a week is an eternity. And the corporate media has shown that it can create any reality it wants in about three weeks. There are five weeks between now and the election.

If the 2004 Democratic primary had been held in December 2003, Howard Dean would have been the undisputed winner. He was the "unbeatable front runner." By the middle of January he was declared "unelectable."

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Response to nichomachus (Reply #11)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 03:15 PM

12. I Agree That The Predictions Are Good For The Day They Are Made

But presidential preferences are much more fixed at this point of a presidential election.

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 05:10 PM

13. I want the House too! nt

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Response to RandySF (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 07:31 PM

14. GOTV. Get Out The Vote. It ain't over till it's over. Etc. nt

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