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Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:42 PM

Here's what Scotty Rasmussen is up to


Just prior to the GOP convention, Rasmussen showed an Obama "surge" that put Obama up by 4 points. No other poll showed such a surge. The reason Rasmussen did this is so that after the convention, when he reported Obama and Romney tied, it would be looked as an a "Romney post-convention bump" and manufacture the illusion of Romney momentum.

It didn't work, because no other polling outfit.... NONE.... showed anything similar.



Now... when every other poll has shown an Obama surge the past 3 weeks and Rasmussen stubbornly showed the race "tied", all of a sudden Rasmussen shows the President with a 3-point lead.

On Wednesday morning, I guarantee you that Rasmussen will show a 4- or 5-point Obama lead. Then, 3 days after the debate, Rasmussen will all-of-a-sudden show the race tied again... giving the illusion of a post-debate "surge" for Romney. Again, this is Scotty Rasmussen's attempt at artificially creating "momentum" for Romney in an effort to drive the media narrative that Romney "won" the first debate.

Rasmussen will play these kinds of tricks with his polls until the final weekend before the election.... in that final poll, Rasmussen will put out the numbers as accurately as he can, because that is the only poll that is used to "grade" the quality of the polling outfits. Nobody looks at what their polls showed weeks out from an election, only what their final poll showed.


Rasmussen's final poll will be VERY close to the final result.

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Reply Here's what Scotty Rasmussen is up to (Original post)
scheming daemons Oct 2012 OP
joycejnr Oct 2012 #1
DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2012 #2
Gormy Cuss Oct 2012 #5
joycejnr Oct 2012 #7
BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #3
graham4anything Oct 2012 #4
alcibiades_mystery Oct 2012 #6
chieftain Oct 2012 #8

Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:45 PM

1. There should be a law against "polling" companies who aren't...

...polling companies, just mouthpieces for the GOP - and that goes double for faux "news" organizations that are propaganda mills for same.

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Response to joycejnr (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:46 PM

2. I Agree But How Would You Ever Prove It?

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #2)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:55 PM

5. Forensic analysis based on the methodological report.

AAPOR* members selected by the membership would be my choice for doing such an analysis.


*American Association for Public Opinion Research.


eta: it's also pretty obvious to anyone in the biz than if one pollster is the perpetual outlier there something wrong with either the methodology or the analysis.

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Response to joycejnr (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 08:34 PM

7. Bill Maher tells us the way...

...just compare their polls? We'll call pieces of tripe like them "Rasmussen Towels Boys For The GOP" instead of "Rasmussen Reports," and there are already enough titles in the blogsphere for the Cons favorite fantasy news channel - "Faux News" is still my favorite.

Here's the link to Bill Maher's piece, "Rasmussen Closes The Hole." --> http://www.real-time-with-bill-maher-blog.com/real-time-with-bill-maher-blog/2012/9/28/rasmussen-closes-the-hole.html

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:47 PM

3. This is why aggregators show

with Ras vs without Ras. It's that bad.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:49 PM

4. Yup.

 

that is how he does it every single election cycle.

the proof is in the eyes of those that follow this every single election cycle and it gets to be laughable.

How does ole' Scotty sleep at night? Sure he got rich, but does he toss and turn all night knowing what a fraud he is (or does he figure he is just entertaining the bosses like a court jester does?)

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Mon Oct 1, 2012, 01:58 PM

6. Notice that unskewedpolls.com is pulling the same nonsense

They miraculously have Obama up today ( ). Needless to say, Romney will surge in the moments immediately following the debate.

The whole thing is just silly.

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Response to scheming daemons (Original post)

Tue Oct 2, 2012, 09:06 PM

8. K&R

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