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dogknob

(2,431 posts)
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 01:34 PM Sep 2012

When Aaron Sorkin uses a statistic in his script, does it then "become fiction?"

I got an eye-roll, a *sigh* and a "you should watch something else" from this guy after I cited a particular statistic that, as it turns out, was used in Jeff Daniels' famous meltdown-rant on The Newsroom.

If the guy were a FOXhead, I probably wouldn't have cared, but he isn't; he's worse. He is so disgusted by the state of our system that he doesn't even want to discuss politics; he's been depressed into submission and non-participation.

He got particularly agitated when I told him that, by doing nothing, he was helping the bad guys.

Has anyone researched the sources of the statistics used in The Newsroom rant? I don't have HBO, but I don't want any arguments I make to instantly lose credibility with people-who-have-lost-all-hope when my facts also happened to show up on that show.

Perhaps an even better question is: How do you talk about November with the "totally-defeated," "it's pointless" class of liberals?

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies

renie408

(9,854 posts)
1. Its pretty easy to research whatever it is you want to know.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 01:37 PM
Sep 2012

Type your stat into Google and see what happens.I have previously checked stuff I heard on Newsroom and it was correct. I am guessing that Sorkin is using accurate information.

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
2. I was having some trouble doing that in Google, which is why I posted.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 01:46 PM
Sep 2012

I started with "citizens who believe angels are real."

Trouble is, I get a whole slew of reviews and commentary about The Newsroom instead of actual statistics.

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
6. I switched search engines instead and got CBS News (2011)
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 01:59 PM
Sep 2012

CBS: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57347634/poll-nearly-8-in-10-americans-believe-in-angels/

Every article is the same and contains the line: "The finding mirrors a 2006 AP-AOL poll, which found 81 percent believed in angels."

Finding THAT poll is not easy. It ain't on AP's website.

Spazito

(49,784 posts)
5. Here you go...
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 01:52 PM
Sep 2012

77% of Americans believe in angels, poll finds

snip

The finding mirrors a 2006 AP-AOL poll, which found 81 per cent believed in angels.

Previous polling has found the public a bit more likely to believe in God, but far less likely to believe in other other-worldly beings. In May, 92 per cent of adults told Gallup pollsters they believed in God. But just 34 per cent in an AP-Ipsos poll in 2007 said they believed in ghosts or UFOs.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Dec. 8-12 and is based on interviews with 1,000 adults nationally. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/artslife/45818-77-americans-believe-angels-poll-finds

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
7. OK, great. Searching is fun! So what about the rest of the question?
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 02:06 PM
Sep 2012

BECAUSE the statistic appeared in the rant of a fictional character on an HBO show, it is now OFF LIMITS and SUSPECT with many people, not all of whom are conservatives.

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
8. So we're still writing everyone else off as "hopeless?" OK. Just checking n/t
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 02:46 PM
Sep 2012

Thank God for NDAA. We are going to need it.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,161 posts)
9. Let's have a go at finding answers
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 03:51 PM
Sep 2012

First, we find the quote:

"We lead the world in only three categories: number of incarcerated citizens per capita, number of adults who believe angels are real, and defense spending, where we spend more than the next 26 countries combined - 25 of whom are allies."
http://www.npr.org/2012/06/22/155554822/aaron-sorkins-newsroom-doesnt-make-up-the-news

OK, taking the "only three" as hyperbole (there's bound to be some obscure statistics in the the USA leads, as well as, for instance, health spending per capita: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_%28PPP%29_per_capita ), we have:

"number of incarcerated citizens per capita"

Yes, this is a fairly commonly quoted statistic, eg http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-incarceration/2011/06/13/AGfIWvYH_story.html . I found that with a Google search for 'prisoners capita country'.

"number of adults who believe angels are real"

This isn't the kind of statistic for which every country will have had an accurate poll; I suspect, before looking anything up, you won't find statistics for a lot of developing countries that are highly likely to have a very high level of belief. But we'll look for what countries have been surveyed. We have the 77% from the Dec 2011 poll for the USA; For '"angels" "poll" "canada"' we get:

Two in Three (67%) Canadians Believe in Angels
Most (59%) Believers Think Angels are Humans Living Among Us

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Toronto, ON – According to a new Ipsos Reid poll conducted on behalf of Canwest News Service and Global National, a majority (67%) of Canadians believe in angels. More specifically, four in ten (37%) say they ‘certainly’ believe in angels, while three in ten (30%) ‘somewhat’ believe in them. Two in ten (21%) ‘don’t entirely’...
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=4221


'"angels" "poll" "britain" | "uk" | "england"' finds us http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/ , which yields a table which says belief in angels in Great Britain has generally increased, in 6 polls from March 1995 to August 2009, from 25% to 41%.

'"angels" "poll" "countries"' finds http://www.monstrous.com/Religions_and_beliefs/Poll_reveals_Israelis_believe_in_angels_ghosts.html , which talks about an 18 country poll for the Bertelsmann Foundation, which looks promising. Searching for '"Bertelsmann Foundation" "angels"' finds results for Australia and Israel, so let's put those 2 countries into the search to see if we can find the complete results. That finds us:

http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/bst/en/media/xcms_bst_dms_29527_29528_2.pdf

which looks promising, and gives some results for all countries, but only talks about American belief in angels. However, we notice they often call themselves "Bertelsmann Stiftung" (German for 'Foundation'?), so let's drop "foundation" from the search. That finds us:

http://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/bst/en/media/xcms_bst_dms_30510_30511_2.pdf

which, hallelujah, tells us 21% of people in Western Europe believe in angels 'quite a bit' or 'very much so', 55% in Italy, 56% in the USA, and 66% in Brazil (their poll of 'Western Europe' was "Germany, France, GB, Italy, Austria, Switzerland and Spain&quot . But we have now found a nation that, asked the same question (give or take the language), believes in angels more - Brazil.

Sorkin may point out that the population of the USA is more than Brazil, so the total number of believers in the USa is still more, but a non per-capita figure is fairly boring. So I think he's pushed that claim a bit too far.

For defense spending, you can try it yourself. It's a common statistic that the USa spends more than any other country, and this is often expressed as "than the next X countries", with X varying a bit from year to year. "25 of whom are allies" doesn't sound true, though, since Russia and China, while not 'enemies', aren't properly 'allies' either, and I bet both of those large countries, with large militaries, appear in the top 25. (And a quick search has just found http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2012/apr/17/military-spending-countries-list , which says that in 2010, China and Russia were #2 and #3).

So, I would say that Sorkin is roughly correct, but should not be quoted as a source for an argument.

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
12. Very helpful. Thanks for taking the time to put that together...
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 04:57 PM
Sep 2012


I was not "quoting" Sorkin as a source, BTW.

My concern is that people are using the statistic's appearance in popular fiction to shut down all discussion of it, using the statistic's new "pop" status alone as "proof" that it is false.

gkhouston

(21,642 posts)
10. Good writers do research. Just because a character says it makes it neither true nor untrue.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 03:59 PM
Sep 2012

Ten seconds with the google can answer a lot of, "but was that total bullshit?" concerns.

As for "does participating matter?" clearly a lot of Republicans think it does, else why are they working so hard to suppress the vote? He may not like the state of our system, but sitting home on his ass sure isn't going to change it. The least he can do is take a little time to go to the polls. If we got a Democratic Congress to work with the President instead of stymying him at every turn, who knows what we might be able to accomplish?

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
13. Yes. I think the whole thing boils down to depression.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 05:28 PM
Sep 2012

Powerful stuff. It doesn't mean the guy is a shlump; he is a successful designer/draftsman.

I have spent a large portion of my own life battling hopelessness and futility. The best I have come up with in almost 43 years is to totally renounce the chemical "solutions" offered by Big Pharma, Big Booze, or Big Dope.

Speaking only for myself... keeping those three "Bigs" at bay is impossible if I continue to party with Big Apathy; perhaps the most powerful and tempting solution of all is the adoption of a "fuck it" attitude towards everything, but as my new friend makes clear...

...defending Big Apathy is much easier than fighting it.

renie408

(9,854 posts)
14. I have found it is easier to turn even a hard GOPer than the apathetic.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 05:46 PM
Sep 2012

I have actually had some minor success down here in the belly of the beast turning some people I thought would NEVER consider Obama or voting Dem. But the few people I know who have the 'they are all jerks and nothing we do matters' attitude just don't even hear you.

dogknob

(2,431 posts)
15. +1 to that. n/t
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 06:03 PM
Sep 2012

I just met this guy yesterday and I know that I will be seeing him again. I also know many others in the same camp here in the blood-red OC (I live in Darrell Issa's district 49). These people aren't stupid, but some of them are so beat down they are barely aware that there's an election coming up. The OC's über-rich, however, are very aware.

It will definitely be a "show-don't-tell" challenge.

 

Electric Monk

(13,869 posts)
11. Just because you saw something on TV doesn't mean it's right, but it doesn't mean it's wrong either.
Sun Sep 30, 2012, 04:04 PM
Sep 2012

How's that?

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