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Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:48 PM

Nate Silver has Florida at a 69.4 chance of an Obama Win

Other strategic swing states:

Virginia 76.5 percent chance of Obama win
Ohio 83.9 percent chance of Obama win
Pennsylvania 97.1 percent chance of Obama win

The icing on the cake, at least for me:

Michigan 96.8 percent chance of Obama win
Wisconsin 89.7 percent chance of Obama win (thank you, Paul Ryan; hopefully your local constituents will be rejecting you as well to represent them in Congress)

319.3 Electoral College Votes Projected for Obama
218.7 Electoral College Votes Projected for Romney

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

And my prediction: looks like it is only going to be further downhill from here for Romney/Ryan. Could not have happened to two better deserving politicians....

Sam

32 replies, 3096 views

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Arrow 32 replies Author Time Post
Reply Nate Silver has Florida at a 69.4 chance of an Obama Win (Original post)
Samantha Sep 2012 OP
JaneyVee Sep 2012 #1
Samantha Sep 2012 #4
hrmjustin Sep 2012 #2
Samantha Sep 2012 #6
hrmjustin Sep 2012 #7
Samantha Sep 2012 #32
RagAss Sep 2012 #3
Samantha Sep 2012 #11
RagAss Sep 2012 #30
IDemo Sep 2012 #5
Samantha Sep 2012 #12
oberliner Sep 2012 #8
Samantha Sep 2012 #13
oberliner Sep 2012 #27
Arugula Latte Sep 2012 #9
Samantha Sep 2012 #15
cleduc Sep 2012 #10
Samantha Sep 2012 #16
KevTucky Sep 2012 #14
Aldo Leopold Sep 2012 #21
SunSeeker Sep 2012 #17
Samantha Sep 2012 #20
littlemissmartypants Sep 2012 #18
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #19
Samantha Sep 2012 #22
Liberal_Stalwart71 Sep 2012 #26
Jennicut Sep 2012 #24
Samantha Sep 2012 #29
Aerows Sep 2012 #23
lpbk2713 Sep 2012 #25
watercolors Sep 2012 #31
B Calm Sep 2012 #28

Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:51 PM

1. Wow. 100 point electoral college spread = landslide.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #1)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:58 PM

4. On second thought, I should have ended that thread with the question:

How low can they go (Romney/Ryan)....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:53 PM

2. 100,000 voters here or there. I don't know just yet, but we will see.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #2)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:09 PM

6. I really think in the remaining time left

President Obama and Vice President Biden will only increase their lead. I truly believe that.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #6)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:19 PM

7. I think you are right , but you never know.

Mitt is trying to prove you correct.

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Response to hrmjustin (Reply #7)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 06:20 PM

32. Well, I just read that article on the Home Page about the voting machines known for flipping totals

and who owns those machines. So I do realize that in an election as hard fought and dirty as this one has become, with the dirt obviously being slung by the right, anything can happen at any time, especially on election night.

So I was sure after reading that article and the number of states where those machines are located, I wouldn't be able to sleep tonight. I sent the link and a couple of pertinent paragraphs to the Obama re-election team just now.

We can't take anything for granted except there will be a massive slight of hand in operation the night of the election and we need to prepared to deal with that.

Thanks for listening, and thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:57 PM

3. Yeh...but they gotta get out and vote.

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Response to RagAss (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:49 PM

11. I don't think there is a lack of enthusiasm on the Democratic side

Do you? Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #11)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 09:54 AM

30. Not where I am...I do worry about complacency, however, since these polls do not seem....

to be tightening up. I just hope they reflect likely voters as they claim.

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 08:59 PM

5. By now, they've got to have patched together their "But he doesn't have a mandate" talking point

Won't matter if it's a landslide.

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Response to IDemo (Reply #5)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 10:00 PM

12. They are probably working on

Republicans lost due to massive voter fraud by the Dems....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:23 PM

8. Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50

states as well as the District of Columbia.

Pretty good track record!

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Response to oberliner (Reply #8)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 10:32 PM

13. Yes he does, and that is why

I started checking his site just about every day when I got tired of hearing the MSM saying how close the election was. Felt better ever since I did.

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #13)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 06:37 AM

27. I hear ya

His site is great - feeling good about November!

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:27 PM

9. No, no. Mitt's gonna win Pennsylvania.

He said so himself. You can't count on it.

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Response to Arugula Latte (Reply #9)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:09 PM

15. I heard him say that and laughed

I noticed he did not say how....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 09:33 PM

10. If Romney doesn't win Florida, it's almost impossible for him:

Romney would have to win all of these tossups or Obama leaners:
North Carolina
Nevada
Colorado
New Hampshire
Iowa
Ohio 83.9 percent chance of Obama win
Virginia 76.5 percent chance of Obama win

Plus one of these:
Wisconsin 89.7 percent chance of Obama win
Michigan 96.8 percent chance of Obama win
Pennsylvania 97.1 percent chance of Obama win (no ads running since Aug and no rallies since July)

You can play with the map here:
http://www.270towin.com/

What Romney-Ryan truthfully plan to do with Medicare/Medicaid is deadly for their chances in Florida. Obama has been spending $5 mil per week on ads in Florida alone to nail Mitt on that.

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Response to cleduc (Reply #10)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:19 PM

16. I believe I heard the only chance if he lost FLA would be carrying the rest of the swing states

As in, all of them.

Well, looks like 49.1 to 50.1 in NC with Romney narrowly projected to win in the popular vote; Nate still gives Romney a 59 percent chance of winning it (NC), but other than that even Iowa is at 74.6 percent chance of an Obama win, and the rest are all heavily going towards President Obama (to address the first part of your post)

I don't think there is even a remote chance of Romney winning one of the states in the second part of your post, short of stealing it, but the margin of win is so great now, it might be to great for them to attempt (to address the second part of your post)

In short, I don't see how Romney wins.

Thanks so much for posting on my thread. I would love to see Florida be the state to win it for President Obama.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:08 PM

14. If we take Ohio, Florida, or Virginia, any of those 3, there is no way Romney can win.

What are the odds R Moneysweeps those? The Pres. takes at least two of those 3, with a sweep a decent chance.

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Response to KevTucky (Reply #14)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:46 PM

21. We will most certainly win Florida and Ohio.

As well as Virginia and most likely NC.

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:28 PM

17. I hope Nate's as right about this as he was about the 2010 red wave.

I didn't believe him in 2010. I thought there's no way people are that stupid. They were. Maybe now they realized they were hustled. All those teabaggers promising jobs and smaller government just passed big government laws putting government right up your hooha, but blocked every jobs bill.

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Response to SunSeeker (Reply #17)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:41 PM

20. I think he is pretty deadly accurate

with the only deviance being in when some slight of hand is involved....

Thanks for posting on my thread.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:40 PM

19. I ask again: How did Nate factor in all the voter fraud and suppression in his calculation?

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #19)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:48 PM

22. Well, I don't see you asked that before but you would have to ask him that

After all these years, there should be a component factored into the equation contained within the margin of error calculation; but as far as the literal county-by-county results being flipped remotely, I think all bets are off then.

Why don't you ask Nate Silver, the expert?

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Reply #22)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 05:53 AM

26. I've been putting forth this question for quite some time now.

Don't know how I would get it to him but maybe I'll try and find his email.

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Response to Liberal_Stalwart71 (Reply #19)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 12:02 AM

24. He puts it at 1 to 2% in some states like PA with the voter ID law.

But probably much less in Florida. No other swing state has a voter ID law like this.

"The vast majority of adults do have some sort of identification.
Many people who do not have identification are not registered to vote or if they are registered, they are unlikely to turn out.
The laws may be inconsistently enforced by thousands and thousands of poll workers at the precinct level.
In many cases, voters without proper identification can cast a provisional ballot, which could eventually be counted in the event of a vote-counting dispute.
The campaigns have an opportunity to educate their voters about ID requirements as part of their turnout operations."

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/measuring-the-effects-of-voter-identification-laws/

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Response to Jennicut (Reply #24)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 07:15 AM

29. Thanks for pointing to this explanation

It was very helpful. I have bookmarked it for re-reading.

Sam

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sat Sep 29, 2012, 11:50 PM

23. Romney is a butthead

I can't put it any nicer than that. Even the people that are voting "for" him are only doing to it vote against President Obama. Nothing says enthusiasm at the polls like "well, I hate you less than the other guy, despite the fact that you suck".

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 12:06 AM

25. I'd like to think Florida has finally come to its senses.




After so many years of voting against their own interests and then making
that incompetent asshole Governor I'd have to think it's about time.


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Response to lpbk2713 (Reply #25)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 10:58 AM

31. We voted for him last time!

Remember we had three parties running for gov. Crist was the spoiler.

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Response to Samantha (Original post)

Sun Sep 30, 2012, 06:51 AM

28. I'm hopeful Ryan made a career ending move

by joining Mitt Romney!

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