Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:15 PM
ProSense (98,079 posts)
BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential ForecastLast edited Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:22 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1) BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast
by The Troubadour An onslaught of positive polls – both at the state and national levels – have been piling up for Obama. So it was only a matter of time before Nate Silver's presidential forecast approached an all-time high for the President. That's what happened tonight, as Obama reached an 81.9 percent chance of winning in Silver's November 6 forecast model:
Additionally, Obama reached 97.8 percent in Silver's Now-cast, an all-time high for him. (Now-cast is the chance a given candidate would win if a snap election were held today.) In all, the numbers continue to rise for Obama, and crumble for Romney, demonstrating the the convention bounce Obama received after the DNC is being solidified by a number of factors. Most notably, this:
While much work still needs to be done given the effort Republicans will make to steal votes in numerous swing states (ID laws or not), one fact remains clear: Mitt Romney is the worst candidate ever. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/26/1136847/-BANG-Obama-Eclipses-80-in-Nate-Silver-s-Presidential-Forecast Damn, I love that second graphic. Note: Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified
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7 replies, 609 views
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Replies to this discussion thread
| Author | Time | Post | |
| ProSense | Sep 2012 | OP | |
| Richard D | Sep 2012 | #1 | |
| corkhead | Sep 2012 | #2 | |
| ProSense | Sep 2012 | #4 | |
| malaise | Sep 2012 | #3 | |
| Melissa G | Sep 2012 | #5 | |
| RainDog | Sep 2012 | #6 | |
| Poiuyt | Sep 2012 | #7 |
Response to ProSense (Original post)
Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:23 PM
Richard D (6,522 posts)
1. The "NOW CAST
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gives "W"illard a 2.2 percent chance. Obama 97.8!!
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Response to ProSense (Original post)
Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:24 PM
corkhead (3,903 posts)
2. Look at the Nowcast on Nate's site where Rmoney is ironically headed toward becoming a 1%er
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Response to ProSense (Original post)
Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:25 PM
malaise (105,915 posts)
3. Lovely
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Rec
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Response to ProSense (Original post)
Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:57 PM
Melissa G (9,510 posts)
5. Delightful!
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Thanks!
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Response to ProSense (Original post)
Wed Sep 26, 2012, 10:45 PM
Poiuyt (12,228 posts)
7. Intrade has Obama at 74.7%
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This is about a point and a half higher than yesterday
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