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Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:15 PM

BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast

Last edited Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:22 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast

by The Troubadour

An onslaught of positive polls – both at the state and national levels – have been piling up for Obama. So it was only a matter of time before Nate Silver's presidential forecast approached an all-time high for the President.

That's what happened tonight, as Obama reached an 81.9 percent chance of winning in Silver's November 6 forecast model:



Additionally, Obama reached 97.8 percent in Silver's Now-cast, an all-time high for him. (Now-cast is the chance a given candidate would win if a snap election were held today.)

In all, the numbers continue to rise for Obama, and crumble for Romney, demonstrating the the convention bounce Obama received after the DNC is being solidified by a number of factors.

Most notably, this:



While much work still needs to be done given the effort Republicans will make to steal votes in numerous swing states (ID laws or not), one fact remains clear: Mitt Romney is the worst candidate ever.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/26/1136847/-BANG-Obama-Eclipses-80-in-Nate-Silver-s-Presidential-Forecast

Damn, I love that second graphic.




Note:

Kos Media, LLC Site content may be used for any purpose without explicit permission unless otherwise specified



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Reply BANG: Obama Eclipses 80% in Nate Silver's Presidential Forecast (Original post)
ProSense Sep 2012 OP
Richard D Sep 2012 #1
corkhead Sep 2012 #2
ProSense Sep 2012 #4
malaise Sep 2012 #3
Melissa G Sep 2012 #5
RainDog Sep 2012 #6
Poiuyt Sep 2012 #7

Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:23 PM

1. The "NOW CAST

gives "W"illard a 2.2 percent chance. Obama 97.8!!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:24 PM

2. Look at the Nowcast on Nate's site where Rmoney is ironically headed toward becoming a 1%er

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Response to corkhead (Reply #2)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:13 PM

4. Thanks. n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 08:25 PM

3. Lovely

Rec

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:57 PM

5. Delightful!

Thanks!

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 10:11 PM

6. k&r n/t

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Response to ProSense (Original post)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 10:45 PM

7. Intrade has Obama at 74.7%

This is about a point and a half higher than yesterday

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