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Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:03 AM

My life in China - Diaoyu Island protests

Okay, so for the past few weeks I've gotten bombarded with questions about diaoyu, those stupid little islands someplace out east of here. These brain-dead idiots I live around (and until you live here, you can't tell me I'm wrong on this) are whipped up into a lather over it.

The problem is China has backed itself into a corner. Remember during the summer all the bullshit with Xisha Islands down in the South China Sea? The CCP did it's best to whip up a frenzy about those. Problem was no one cared. Philippines has done nothing to China, so when the drums of war were banged, no one really cared.

Japan, however, is a sore topic. So now the drums of war are beating again. People here are all set to fight for these islands. Notice I didn't say die, just fight. It seems it's the really young set that want to fight, or at least they believe the Chinese PLA should do the fighting. But, as I was told "since the army is already big enough, I don't need to join." Nice huh? Chickenhawks aplenty. That guy was a 19 year old boy.

So, this latest exercise is mindlessness and controlling the 1.34 billion sheep that live here is working well. Sadly, no one here believes me when I say the Japanese military can only legally defend, not attack and if Japanese gets attacked, the US must defend as per peace treaty with the Japanese in 1945 and 1970. So, China attacks Japan, they invite war with America.

Don't worry. According to them, China will destroy America. All China needs to do is invade Alaska with troops, attack Hawai'i and then the US is crippled because "China owns the US." When I them about ICBM technology, NORAD and our advances in stealth and first strike, the look of bewilderment and shock comes, followed by disbelief. Then comes the face saving "no, that's not what I was told/read/heard/believe/taught/(brainwashed into thinking).

Don't get my wrong. There are rational, intelligent people here in China (1% maybe) that think this shit is just a big waste of time, money, energy and resources. Two of them are friends of mine, one is a university professor (go figure!)

What people do not understand is what is going to happen, because history is a political tool (history books teach these clowns that the US did nothing to help China during WW2 and all the US did was drop two bombs on Japan, that the failure of the Great Leap Forward was due to weather, not Mao's hubris, arrogance and stupidity. . .and that the Cultural Revolution was the fault of the Gang of Four, not Mao's desire to regain lost prestige after the Great Chinese Famine) and that what I predict is only a short time away.

Here is my prediction for these stupid protests (some has already happened):
1: These "protests" will be gradually increased. Here in Nanjing, while I was at China Post, the "protest" went passed. It was about 300 people and 1000 police officers lining the streets with camera and walking with the protesters.

2: The sharks will begin to start "selling" "patriotic" (爱国) mementos filled with propaganda (which just means information in China). At the local supermarket, this 18 year old kid was selling "钓鱼岛是中国。 日本:去死" (Diaoyu Islands are China. Japan: Go Die). People, because they are uneducated (mostly) and ignorant (because their schools suck) will lap this shit up because Japan is China's traditional tormentor.

3: All the while, people will be obsessed with these stupid little islands as evidenced by all the talk on Weibo, Qzone, RenRenWang and on the street. Even my employers asked my opinion and I told them "I don't give a rat's ass about Chinese or Japanese islands because it doesn't affect my country at all."

4: The fanning of the flames will caused violence against businesses perceived to be owned by the Japanese. A buddy in Wuhan told me a Family Mart (Korean) and a 7/11 (American) were vandalized and looted because the Chinese there though those two companies were Japanese.

5: The violence will escalate. In Beijing yesterday, a woman's Toyota was attacked by a mob. They pulled her out and carjacked it. . .only to discover her five month old baby was in the back. Six hours later, the car was brought back, damaged, as was the child, unharmed.

6: The police will do nothing. The Government will tacitly condemn to save face, but will work behind the scenes to flame the flames even more.

7: Someone important will die. Or someone important will get attacked (Gary Locke was attacked in Beijing). Then it's time to really save face, but do nothing.

8: Eventually, the real reason for all this shit will die down (it is being used as a distraction for the slowly economy, the loss of jobs and wages and to cover the power transfer from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping) and the government will begin issuing edicts stopping the protests.

9: People won't listen because you can't put the fart back in the Elephant. At that point, the authoritarian Chinese government will do the only thing it know how to do:

10:


My GF wanted to be part of that protest. I convinced her to stay away. It's just not worth the risk of TPTB and the police changing their minds. Wait until October 1st when it's National Days (or as I call it, the "National 'Ain't Mao Just Swell' Brainwashing Festival.") See the jingoism then.

On that, have a good day.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:10 AM

1. Thanks. As a San Francisco resident, I've had discussion with Mainland Chinese about this

and I'll be watching to see how your prediction rolls out.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:24 AM

2. Yep, nothing like ignorance to worry you

When idiots here talk about turning the middle east into "glass," and don't know what that means in the long run...

Or the Chinese there who talk about war, and don't know what that means in the long run.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:31 AM

3. 'China owns the US'

Is that a reference to the debt that China holds against US interests? Or am I misunderstanding the sentiment?

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #3)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:40 AM

4. I remember seeing an interview with the President

I believe he said most of our US Debt is owed to the good people of the USA and that we do not owe that much to China. I don't know if that is true..but I tend to believe the President. Owing money is not good..but I seriously doubt the Chinese Government is going to go crazy trying to get its money back. I am sure it was a loan in good faith, and it will be repaid in due time.



edited to say, this was when he was being interviewed by David Letterman, recently.

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Response to AsahinaKimi (Reply #4)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 02:47 AM

5. I just googled.

about.com has the US government owing China $1.2 trillion.

I'm just thinking that should China invade Alaska and Hawaii, chances are they won't be seeing their money any time soon. I still would like clarification on what is meant by 'owning' us in the Chinese vernacular, exactly. I find this worldview particularly fascinating.

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Response to LiberalAndProud (Reply #5)

Wed Sep 26, 2012, 09:07 PM

14. The PLA will destroy the US because they PLA is the greatest army on the planet

This is what they mean by owning us. It has nothing to do with money. Thinking debt and economics is too high of a thinking pattern for these people here. They are still pretty much fight-or-flight mentality (mostly cause problems, apologize, then run away fast).

We have nothing to worry about with China.

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Response to AsahinaKimi (Reply #4)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 03:07 AM

6. It's true. It's basically the debt owed to the social security trust fund & a bunch of smaller stuf

 

china owns 8% of us debt.

ss trust fund owns 19%.

the fed owns 11%.

us pension funds, states, counties etc. own some too.

http://www.businessinsider.com/who-owns-us-debt-2011-7?op=1

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Response to AsahinaKimi (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 07:26 AM

12. Debt owed to China is not in the form of a "loan made in good faith"

Or otherwise. It is in the form of Treasury bonds that the Chinese Central bank ( or banks) have purchased, for the most part on the open market. No American government official went to the Chinese, hat in hand and asked for a loan.

It doesn't work that way.

Also, US Treasury securities are not "putable" meaning they can NOT be forced back on the issuer by the holder. If the Chinese want to rid themselves of this paper, they would have to sell those bonds on the open market, just like everyone else. If they showed up at the Treasury and demanded their money back, they would be politely laughed out the front door.

One last thing: these securities trade in Federal Reserve notes - dollars - their interest payments are paid in dollars and they are redeemed ONLY in dollars. The Chinese have no desire for war with the USA (why start a war with your biggest customer?) and ZERO desire to see the value of the dollar plummet. They are who they are, but they aren't stupid.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)


Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 04:46 AM

8. Thanks Suji for this comprehensive look at what is going on

I had the same experience in China in terms of a few people who were rational and intelligent. Two of my students were a "campus couple" and helped me out a great deal with getting stuff done which I couldn't do by myself. James said he wanted to go into government. I tried talking to both him and his girlfriend to change his mind telling him it wasn't worth it and if they wanted a better life to get out of China.

I think you are right about the Chinese government being behind fanning the flames of the protests. When the death of a foreigner happens (it's not if, because I believe it will happen if the attacks continue) the Chinese Government is going to have a big problem on their hands.

Embassies are suppose to be sovereign territory. If I were Japan, the next time this happens I would recall my ambassadors and staff and close the embassy and instruct China to bring their people home from Japan. Something like this would be a huge wake up call for China to let them know they can't get away with this stuff and that claiming ignorance doesn't work.

China is attempting to be the Asian bully. It's not just Japan they have issues with. Korea, Vietnam, and the Philippines all have unresolved issues with China.

I know a few years ago, Japan was pushing to be able to have offensive weapons. I have mixed feelings about it due to their history and the strong possibility that it could lead to an arms race in Asia. At some point if China continues to become aggressive it may become necessary to allow Japan to have more weapons.

All of this combined with the stuff going on in the Middle East is pretty damn frightening. Who knows if the Chinese will start attacking the Korean Embassy. I would be you dollars to donuts the Koreans are preparing for the possibility it could happen.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Sat Sep 22, 2012, 07:56 AM

9. So they have obnoxious chicken hawks too?

I guess they're everywhere.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 06:50 AM

10. Realistically, it will get better before it gets worse

Last edited Mon Sep 24, 2012, 09:18 AM - Edit history (1)

I'd really believe the Chinese would fight and die for these islands before the Japanese. Still, I don't think it will come to that. Statistics from China show that the trading links with Japan are just too strong to risk over some little islands. Already in the international news, the situation is disappearing from the headlines.

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Response to Suji to Seoul (Original post)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 07:07 AM

11. From Japan, thank you for the rational post.

When I try to post something similar, because I am in Japan, most DU'ers mumble something about Nanking as if that is all that needs to be understood about relations between Japan and China for now and forever. Forget my suggestion that the Chinese govt. uses Japan as a whipping post to stir up nationalism and avoid any criticism aimed at them.

There is tremendous backwardness in most of mainland China as you say. China, if I am right, is really 2 countries of enormous wealth and educational disparity. (Rural America VS. elite urban America an steroids)

Anyway, what you say about Japan's military is totally true. Only defense. But it is capable of defending itself pretty well is my guess.

I really think that Chinese govt. means to do nothing, but if they keep whipping up hatred, it may have uncontrollable results.

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Response to Bonobo (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 24, 2012, 02:07 PM

13. I live in Nanjing. Alot of the resentment here is due to people like the LD Party denying

the Rape of Nanking.

There is a huge disparity, not just urban v. rural but wealthy v. poor inside the cities as well. Education is paid luxury after the first nine years.

It's already beginning. I haven't heard shit about this crap in the past few days. It's like it doesn't exist anymore. It served its purpose. A distraction.

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