Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:00 AM
n2doc (29,544 posts)
Romney behind and running out of time
By Charlie Cook
It is becoming clear that if President Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign.
The U.S. economyóand, by extension, the publicís judgment of Obamaís stewardship over the economyóis a millstone that no president would want around his neck. Polls and focus groups are quite clear: While Americans donít blame Obama for the economic downturn, they are disappointed with how he has handled it since taking office. They had hoped that he would be more effective. Just a third of Americans in last monthís NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling felt that the country was headed in the right direction, and 54 percent disapproved of the presidentís handling of the economy.
Whatís worse, itís not getting better. A just-released Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 56 top economists shows a consensus forecast of the U.S. economy growing by just 1.7 percent in the current, third quarter and 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter, with unemployment remaining around 8.2 percent for the last six months of 2012. Traditionally this would not be considered reelection territory.
But for all of that, Obama went into the conventions either tied or with an ever-so-slight lead in the national polls, and he comes out of the Democratic convention with a lead. The exact size of that advantage will be clear by the end of this week, when we will see a pile of new, post-convention polling. Gallupís seven-day moving-average tracking poll through last Sunday gives Obama a 4-point lead, 49 percent to 45 percent. Going into the GOP convention, the battleground-state picture looked better for Obama than the national numbers: Obama was up in nine of 11 battlegrounds, with Michigan and Pennsylvania looking not so much like battleground states. Romney leads only in North Carolina.
Let the bloodbath begin!
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Response to n2doc (Original post)
Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:29 AM
1StrongBlackMan (7,444 posts)
2. Since the article refers to ...
Last edited Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:33 AM - Edit history (1)
Polls AND FOCUS GROUPS ...
Polls and focus groups are quite clear: While Americans donít blame Obama for the economic downturn, they are disappointed with how he has handled it since taking office. They had hoped that he would be more effective. Just a third of Americans in last monthís NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling felt that the country was headed in the right direction, and 54 percent disapproved of the presidentís handling of the economy.
I'm pretty certain that besides asking the quantitative questions regarding the economy, thy are also asking qualitative questions, such as:
You have expressed that you are disappointed with how President Obama has handled the economy, what are your concerns?
You have expressed that you are disappointed with how President Obama has handled the economy, what factors (if any) have contributed to President Obama's mishandling of the economy?
When using FOCUS GROUPS, It is not enough to report out what people think; but focus groups also get to WHY people think what they think. These reports should also report out on that. It only Research and Evaluation Methods 101!
My guess is by reporting out why people are disappointed with President Obama's handling of the economy, would expose that their disappointment is not so much about President Obama's actions; but rather, that of gop obstruction ... and that would necessarily change the prevailing narrative, i.e., "President Obama is ineffective in his handling of the economy."
But I'm biased to believe that.