Nate gives us a 80.7% of winning

[Hamlette]

it's been going up all day....seems like it was updated within the last hour or so. Maybe he doesn't sleep.

[Kurska]

2. I think you're lost n/t

[Ellipsis]

3. Ya me despido.

That's first time I've seen an automated spam post and it was in Spanish Wild!

[Ellipsis]

4. You're right! His now cast just jumped from 300 to 308 for Obama !!!!

[Brother Buzz]

7. Check again, it's close to 320

I'm just saying.

[Ellipsis]

12. That's the November 6th numbers... not the "Now Cast"

The "Now Cast" is a different set of numbers, but it 's all good. There's a button to the right of the Nov. 6th number button you can click to see the now cast numbers.

[Brother Buzz]

13. I read that bit about "now cast" downthread, but, well, as you said....

It's all good.

[Ellipsis]

14. I just read it... I was looking for a better definition on 538 for you

and low and behold... it's all ready on DU.

[Tarheel_Dem]

5. Does this mean there's new polling data?

Oh, and Rec!

[Hamlette]

6. His model relies more than just polling data but PPP had a poll of at least Ohio today n/t

[flor-de-jasmim]

8. I just hope voters do not become complacent.

[AverageJoe90]

10. I don't think so.

A lot of people are scared, rightly so, of what a Romney Presidency could do to this country. If anyone needs to worry about complacency, it's the Republicans; they're the ones losing voters this year.....

[regnaD kciN]

9. What makes this even more interesting...

...is the difference between the main forecast (which works in Nate's predicted estimate of skewing of the numbers caused by convention bounces) and the "Now-cast" (which doesn't). Up until today, while the main forecast had Obama's chances in the upper '70s, his "Now-cast" odds were in the upper '60s to very low '70s. In other words, the odds on the main page were based on the assumption that more of a bounce ought to be forthcoming -- if it turned out it was smaller or shorter-lasting than expected, Obama's odds would drop quite dramatically. This is why I have been telling people to pay attention to the "Now-cast" instead of the main forecast for the past few days.

Now, however, the numbers have flipped; the main forecast has 80.7%, but the "Now-cast" is up to 83%. This means that, at this point, the model assumes that Obama's bounce has reached its peak, and is due to recede -- and, if it does, his odds of victory are still greater than 4:1. On the other hand, if the bounce doesn't drop as expected (we're not even talking of it increasing, just not dropping according to the predicted rate), Obama's odds are even more favorable.

Either way, barring some massive "game-changer" (and it would have to be quite massive, like a slide into another deep recession) in the coming weeks, it's not looking good for Rmoney.

[Hamlette]

11. thanks for that explanation!

I hadn't even clicked on the "now-cast" section so I've not been following it. I will now.