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Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:09 AM

when will the first polls show the "bounce"?

n/t

13 replies, 1654 views

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Reply when will the first polls show the "bounce"? (Original post)
oldhippydude Sep 2012 OP
jberryhill Sep 2012 #1
gordianot Sep 2012 #2
jberryhill Sep 2012 #4
gordianot Sep 2012 #8
lonestarnot Sep 2012 #12
nadinbrzezinski Sep 2012 #3
aaaaaa5a Sep 2012 #5
alcibiades_mystery Sep 2012 #6
Larkspur Sep 2012 #7
quinnox Sep 2012 #9
discopants Sep 2012 #10
longship Sep 2012 #13
DonRedwood Sep 2012 #11

Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:13 AM

1. When you roll them up and hit the GOP over the head with them

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:23 AM

2. That only results in a dull thud.

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Response to gordianot (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:24 AM

4. And a bounce in your step!

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:35 AM

8. LOL for real.

Damn my brother in law turned down my offer when HE started it and left. I feel the bounce every time I think about it.

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Response to jberryhill (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:07 AM

12. Snort.

LMAO.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:24 AM

3. At least 48 hours

and those will be insta polls. They will start the calls tomorrow.

By Monday, to correct myself, we will really know.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:28 AM

5. Monday.

Most tracking polls are 3 day rolling averages.

Gallup has a 7 day tracking poll. However over the last few weeks, nothing has moved the numbers in any direction.


I think the days of 7-12 point swings off of conventions are gone forever. A good solid 2-3 point advantage by the middle of next week is what we can realistically hope for.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:30 AM

6. A funny phenomenon

The polls were (and still are!) virtually silent after the GOP Convo, largely because they were waiting for a bounce that never came. I suspect we'll see more silent pollsters over the next 3-6 days, but for the opposite reason: they try desperately to spin or diminish the obvious bounce for the President.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:32 AM

7. This DNC convention wasn't about getting a poll bump. It was about getting the Dem base

enthusiastic for the work ahead to win in November.

When Sen. John Kerry makes you laugh at Rmoney et al instead of putting you to sleep, you know that the real goal of this convention was to fire up the Dem base. I've never been a John Kerry fan, but tonight he gave the best speech of his life. Congrats to him and to whoever was the speech coach or coaches for the Dems this year. Some like Bill Clinton are natural speakers, but when those like John Kerry, who has a reputation for curing insomnia, give enthusiastic speeches, you get a clue that the Dems, especially our Dem leaders, have put aside their egos and differences and have embraced working as a TEAM this year.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:39 AM

9. doubt will see much of a bounce

 

I don't think these conventions really draw viewers from outside the loyal party members, its bascially just a "rah rah" party exercise, and those aren't all that interesting to the general public IMHO.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:42 AM

10. Obama's still getting his GOP convention bounce

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Response to discopants (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 02:17 AM

13. Sorry. I do not buy 538 electoral map.

The only worse one is the one that throws out Rasmussen. (In science one learns that there are always outliers. If one wants an unbiased data set, you do not throw any of it out. The biases will cancel out, on average. Look up Gaussian distribution and standard deviation.)

All the othe electoral maps, none show Obama with a majority EV. The median one may be TPM, or the Princeton EV map.

However, none of them are meaningful at all until polling accelerates as we approach the election. The polls on which all of the EV projections are based are too old, too few, and way too speculative. The error bars are wide and one inevitably chooses the most optimistic as confirmation bias.

The best thing at this point in the game is to ignore the absolutes and look only at the changes.

Or! Make your own electoral map based only on all known and recent data or whatever criteria you choose. Just do not throw out any data, no matter how biased you perceive it to be. That's not allowed.

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Response to oldhippydude (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 01:47 AM

11. i can't wait to see some of the yellow states going blue and the red states going pink and yellow.

yellow=tossup

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