100 Days Out: From Serious Vulnerability to a Wave Election

[cynatnite]

Less than 100 days until the election, the latest battleground survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps shows Democrats with an advantage in the most vulnerable tier of Republican districts. The first Democracy Corps survey of the reapportioned battleground shows Republican incumbents in serious and worsening trouble. The 2012 campaign has just turned the corner on 100 days and the message of this survey could not be clearer: these 54 battleground Republicans are very vulnerable and many will lose their seats.

These members, on average, are barely ahead of their challengers and are as vulnerable as the incumbents in 2006, 2008 and 2010. Those elections we now know crystallized earlier—in 2010, incumbent vulnerability translated into anti-Democratic voting by March as health care came to a close in 2010. These incumbents are equally vulnerable but have not yet paid the price for the Ryan budget and their priorities, but it is clear that their support is now falling.

http://www.democracycorps.com/Battleground-Surveys/july-battleground-survey/

I decided to see what I could find after reading what Nancy Pelosi said about our chances at regaining the house. I've got to keep my expectations in check.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021276295

[Vincardog]

1. When the GOP counts on lies and stupid people running for office there is hope for us.

[cynatnite]

2. Do you we have any serious statistics on regaining the House and keeping the Senate? n/t