Why no safe zone in Syria, yet? 5 complications (CS Monitor)

[pinto]

Why no safe zone in Syria, yet? 5 complications

- Ariel Zirulnick, Staff writer

The idea of a safe zone for refugees in Syria was first proposed several months ago, but the flood of people entering Turkey – as many as 5,000 a day for the past 10 days – has ratcheted up the pressure for such a zone’s creation.

The UN refugee agency announced on Aug. 28 that as many as 200,000 Syrians may seek refuge in Turkey alone. Turkey says its threshold is 100,000, and it is leading the call for a safe zone so that Syrians can safely remain inside Syria.

But it’s complicated and carries risks that make the international community hesitant to implement it. Here are some complications:

1. It is a big promise to make.

By creating a safe zone, whether under the auspices of the United Nations or with a coalition of countries, the parties involved are vowing to provide safety, and committing to do whatever it takes to maintain it. “Whatever it takes” can be a slippery slope that could draw other countries fully into Syria’s conflict.

2. It constitutes a military action.

The Srebrenica massacre, when outgunned peacekeeping forces stationed around the town were unable to stop Serb forces from killing thousands of Bosnian civilians in 1995, taught the international community that a well-armed security force is essential to the success of a safe zone.

"To be effective, a safe zone requires a serious armed force that can defend it and serious logistics to supply it and that means a lot of military boots on the ground and serious commitment," Emir Suljagic, a survivor of the Srebrenica massacre who had worked as an interpreter for UN forces based in the town, told the Associated Press.

Marc Lynch wrote in a briefing for the Center for New American Security in February that the degree of military involvement necessary would be “equivalent to direct military intervention.”

<more at>

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0829/Why-no-safe-zone-in-Syria-yet-5-complications/It-is-a-big-promise-to-make.

[Nuclear Unicorn]

1. We can't be the world police but then how can we sit idly-by?

It's a serious question. I won't even pretend to have an answer.

[pinto]

2. Me neither. I was hoping the League of Arab States (if that's the correct moniker) would have

some mitigating role. Or that Kofi Annan would intervene effectively. Looks to me like a disastrous, violent process that'll end in the decimation of one side or the other. And thousands of civilian deaths.

Broad embargoes of all but food, medical and other humanitarian supplies would seem one lever. Yet, even that has a conflict with consensus. And there's the global arms trade...