First Read: Romney's tough path to 270

[WI_DEM]

First Read ranks the nine toss-up states in the likelihood of Romney being able to flip them from blue to red (from most likely to least likely):

1. North Carolina
2. Iowa
3. Florida
4. Colorado
5. Virginia
6. Nevada
7. Ohio
8. Wisconsin
9. New Hampshire

"What's striking about this list is if you give Romney the Top 4 (NC, IA, FL, and CO) that only gets him to 250 electoral votes. And if you give him the next two on the list (VA and NV), he's still one short of 270 (bringing us to that 269-269 tie). That means he has to put one of Ohio, Wisconsin, or New Hampshire into the mix to get past 270. Bottom line: Romney's map to 270 is more than doable, but it's also a high-wire act."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/23/romneys_tough_path_to_270.html

As a Wisconsinite, I would actually switch WI and Ohio. WI is close and while Obama has an edge, I think it's more possible for Rmoney to win WI than it is for him to win Ohio, where Obama has been pretty consistently leading in the mid single digits or more for months.

[Proud Public Servant]

1. Rove's 3-2-1 strategy

Rove has said that Romney's strategy for 2012 needs to be to look at Obama's map for 2008 and pick up 3-2-1:

3 - The three traditional GOP states that Obama picked up: IN, NC, and VA
2 - The two swing states that have made the last few elections (FL and OH)
1 - Any other state that Obama won

If that's the strategy, Romney really is in a tough spot; VA and OH are just not looking for him, and he can't do it without them.