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Fri Aug 17, 2012, 12:28 AM

It's a good thing the GOP is passing these Voter ID laws...

One in every 403,225,806 votes cast in the US since the year 2000 has been fraudulent. That got me to thinking. I wonder what crazy things are more likely than someone casting a fraudulent vote in-person. Here's what I found:

Dating a Sports Illustrated swimsuit model - 89,000:1
Getting hit by an asteroid - 200,000:1
Being killed by a vending machine - 112,000,000:1
Becoming President - 150,000,000:1
Winning the $640 Million Mega Millions lottery back in March - 176,000,000:1

Also included were being killed while 1) crossing the street (47,000:1), 2) getting struck by lightning (700,000:1), or 3) being hit by a bus (200,000:1). I couldn't find the odds of being struck by lightning while crossing the street and getting hit by a bus.

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Reply It's a good thing the GOP is passing these Voter ID laws... (Original post)
Big Orange Jeff Aug 2012 OP
spanone Aug 2012 #1
KT2000 Aug 2012 #2
brazil Aug 2012 #3
Big Orange Jeff Aug 2012 #4

Response to Big Orange Jeff (Original post)

Fri Aug 17, 2012, 12:36 AM

1. not a damned thing funny about voter disenfranchisement

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Response to Big Orange Jeff (Original post)

Fri Aug 17, 2012, 12:42 AM

2. I always wonder about "snowbirds"

that maintain dual residences and mostly repub. I would bet that my tea party flag flying neighbor votes for president in Washington (summer residence) and California (winter residence).

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Response to Big Orange Jeff (Original post)

Fri Aug 17, 2012, 02:50 AM

3. If I remember my probability class well enough...

If getting struck by lightning, getting hit by a bus, and crossing the street were independent and unrelated events, you'd be looking at 1 in 6,580,000,000,000,000. Pretty unlikely.

But I'd be willing to bet that 99/100 people who get hit by a bus are also crossing the street, so if we assume that those two go hand in hand, then we're looking at odds of around 1 in 10 billion for hitting the trifecta.

But then again, you'd have to look at where people are when they get struck by lightning and if there's any correlation (positive or negative) with where buses are likely to be, generally urban areas. I'd guess a negative correlation, so maybe the true number is closer to 1 in 20 or 30 billion or so.

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Response to brazil (Reply #3)

Fri Aug 17, 2012, 09:21 AM

4. Whew!! Now I can sleep well, knowing this will probably never, ever, happen to anyone.

Thanks!

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