It's Official: No VP Bounce For Romney/Ryan

[berni_mccoy]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-poll-paul-ryan-pick-doesnt-give-romney-a-bounce-20120815,0,665142.story

Poll Watch: Paul Ryan pick doesn't give Romney a bounce

By David Lauter
August 15, 2012, 12:51 p.m.
Two more national polls out Wednesday confirm what scattered early data had suggested – Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney is not seeing much of a boost in the polls as a result of his pick of a running mate.

And a poll of battleground states also showed very limited movement, with Romney gaining a little ground in Ohio and Virginia, but losing some in Florida and Colorado. In all cases, however, the shifts were within the poll’s margin of error.

I disagree with the articles assessment that VP picks don't give a bounce (as they state in the next paragraph). According to Nate Silver, who has done extensive research on the topic and who is rarely wrong, candidates *do* get a VP Bounce (that is unless they are Romney).

See here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/aug-14-the-fog-of-polling-and-ryans-bounce-so-far/

Aug. 14: The Fog of Polling — and Ryan’s ‘Bounce’ So Far

By NATE SILVER
As I noted on Saturday, past vice-presidential announcements have typically been greeted with a small “bounce” in the polls. Harry J. Enten, at The Guardian, has run the numbers on this for vice-presidential announcements dating back to 1984. He finds a net gain of four percentage points in the polls — and a mean of six — for the party that just named its new running mate.
...

That means Romney isn't getting a typical 3-4 point bounce from Ryan *because* Ryan is a NET NEGATIVE.

[TlalocW]

1. What Ryan has done

Is made a few republicans more "optimistic" about the overall ticket so basically Romney is solidifying his base a little bit or making it so that republicans who were on the fence about actually dragging their asses out of the house on election day are more likely to do so now. Once Barack and Joe start tying Romney to Ryan's absurdist notions about the economy and destroying the safety net, any possible gain they got will be lost by seniors switching to democrats.

TlalocW

[CrispyQ]

2. Liberman was a 9 point bounce?

[CherokeeDem]

3. Yes...Liberman was the excitement of the day....

Part of it because he was the person that Bill Clinton turned to for mentoring during the Monica saga. He was seen as a strong, ethical, and moral character and was a 'healer' on the ticket. I met him a couple of times; I was working on the campaign in Miami during 2000, and found him charming and really liked him. Little did we know then that he is a DINO and a turncoat. I had a great pic of the two of us at a reception given a few weeks after the election was given to Bush. I have since torn it into little shreds.

But yes, it was a heady time for Dems...

I'll take Biden anytime.

[karynnj]

4. Yes - many were very excited and both Gore and Lieberman had great speeches

at their debut. Lieberman got good press for his "rock star" FL appearances - the first bad sign was his incredibly weak VP debate.

[berni_mccoy]

5. And remember... they WON. The Supreme Court handed that election to Dumbya