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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:58 PM

 

I have question about Friday's unemployment number.

I don't expect great news, but realistically what is a good number? what is a diasater? Also, I'd be curious how many jobs it would take to shift the percent of unemployment .1 either way?

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Reply I have question about Friday's unemployment number. (Original post)
crimson77 Aug 2012 OP
SoutherDem Aug 2012 #1
Motown_Johnny Aug 2012 #3
SoutherDem Aug 2012 #4
Motown_Johnny Aug 2012 #2

Response to crimson77 (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:06 PM

1. My question is what is the seasonal adjustment this month?

Last month it reduced the number by 800,000 jobs, but many questioned if the normal adjustment should have been used.

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Response to SoutherDem (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:12 PM

3. 80,000 (not 800,000)

Sorry for the Huffpo link


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/06/june-jobs-report-unemployment-rate_n_1653579.html


^snip^


June Jobs Report: U.S. Adds 80,000 Jobs; Unemployment Rate Unchanged

WASHINGTON -- The American job machine has jammed. Again.

The economy added only 80,000 jobs in June, the government said Friday, erasing any doubt that the United States is in a summer slump for the third year in a row.

"Let's just agree: This number stinks," said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at the investment firm BTIG.

It was the third consecutive month of weak job growth. From April through June, the economy produced an average of just 75,000 jobs a month, the weakest three months since August through October 2010.

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Response to Motown_Johnny (Reply #3)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:16 AM

4. Right 80,000 was added after the seasonal adjustment

I will try to find the link to post but before the seasonal adjustment I think the number was 800,000. As I understand, because of a normal uptick in summer hiring for recreational reasons. Some feel that adjustment was incorrect because the general economy is not allowing the seasonal hiring trends normally seen. I will edit if I find the link.

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Response to crimson77 (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 08:08 PM

2. For the media it won't be a good number no matter what

I'm no expert so I am just going to punt on this one.


http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/03/obamas-magic-number-150000-jobs-per-month/


^snip^

February 3, 2012, 6:51 AM 74 Comments
Obama’s Magic Number? 150,000 Jobs Per Month
By NATE SILVER


The unemployment report on Friday will give us the most tangible read to date on how the economy is performing in 2012. It might also represent the most important number yet for President Obama’s prospects of winning re-election.

Here’s a spoiler: reports that say more than 150,000 jobs have been created can generally be interpreted as good news for Mr. Obama. Reports that come in at under 150,000 jobs could put him on a trajectory toward defeat.

However, the matter is worth examining in more depth.

No economic indicator is the holy grail. The American economy is a hard thing to measure, and initial estimates of economic performance are subject to significant revisions. Different aspects of the economy affect different people in different ways (the political science literature on exactly how economic performance affects voter behavior comes to some diverse conclusions). And there are a number of non-economic variables pertinent to predicting presidential elections — wars, candidate quality and ideology, turnout, scandals and so forth.

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