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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:58 PM

Can We Retake the House?

At its root, the problem is that a sizable percentage of the GOP caucuses in Congress are opposed to so much of what the federal government does that those who want to actually legislate are being marginalized and ostracized. The GOP tends to walk in lockstep, but there is no consensus on where they're going. On top of that, Mitt Romney isn't helping. His campaign is totally opaque and utterly lacking in any kind of ideological leadership. It even seems likely that many Republicans would prefer that he lose rather than turn over control of the party to his Massachusetts-based team. In any case, I'm beginning to suspect that commentators like George Will and Charles Krauthammer feel that way, considering their willingness to blast Romney for, respectively, not releasing his tax returns and allowing his wife to enter a dressage horse in the Olympics.

With the weakness of Mitt Romney as a candidate and the lack of coherence and loyalty within the Republican caucuses, it may be a mistake to predict the outcome of congressional elections based on the 2008 results in those districts. It's hard to say. The wheels definitely came off the GOP clown car in September and October of 2008. I think the wheels are starting to come off a little earlier this time around.

Can the GOP avoid terrifying swing-voters at their convention? Can Romney overcome his foot-in-mouth disease? Will outside money make all the difference?

I have said for a couple of years that this would not be a close election. I have believed for a long time that the American people would be more decisive this time, one way or the other, than they have been in recent times. I still believe that. And my gut tells me that the House of Representatives is in play.

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2012/8/1/105011/2149

16 replies, 1392 views

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Arrow 16 replies Author Time Post
Reply Can We Retake the House? (Original post)
phantom power Aug 2012 OP
kentuck Aug 2012 #1
ananda Aug 2012 #15
nadinbrzezinski Aug 2012 #2
Xyzse Aug 2012 #3
nadinbrzezinski Aug 2012 #5
1StrongBlackMan Aug 2012 #4
Wounded Bear Aug 2012 #6
brooklynite Aug 2012 #7
discopants Aug 2012 #8
oldhippydude Aug 2012 #9
Proud Liberal Dem Aug 2012 #10
99Forever Aug 2012 #11
global1 Aug 2012 #12
kentuck Aug 2012 #13
msongs Aug 2012 #14
tabbycat31 Aug 2012 #16

Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:59 PM

1. We could ...

with the right strategy.

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Response to kentuck (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 03:32 PM

15. We definitely could with Howard Dean in charge.

nt

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:00 PM

2. Yes, back in February I even posted the Former Speaker

saying such at the California Democratic Party.


Democrats’ hopes to pick up 25 Congressional seats in the 2012 elections include three seats in California—one of which is the newly redrawn 52nd Congressional District (formerly the 50th district) currently held by Republican Brian Bilbray.

Two well-known Democrats are vying for the nomination: Lori Saldaña, former Assemblywoman and past Associate Dean at Mesa College, and Scott Peters, former San Diego City Council president and Port director.

Redistricting has shifted the district’s registration balance from strongly Republican to nearly equally divided between the major parties: 35.4% Republican, 32.7% Democratic, and the wild card factor of 27.2% decline to state.


http://eastcountymagazine.org/node/8694

And from all I have seen so far, yup. she will get that gavel back.

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Response to nadinbrzezinski (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:03 PM

3. I hope so

I like Pelosi.

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Response to Xyzse (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:05 PM

5. She was pretty sure, I can tell you this

and pols do not go there with press, unless they are that sure.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:05 PM

4. It seems to me ...

that the one Convention thing they could do to incite their base (install a "true conservative") would terrify those swing voters that they need.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:06 PM

6. Well, we have a new district....

here in Washington State. I sure hope it goes blue.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:08 PM

7. I'm inclined to say "no"...

I've met with DCCC, I've supported a range of House candidates, and I'd like to be more optimistic, but I'm not seeing any trends that suggest we can pick up net + 25 seats. Personally, I'm thinking of pulling out of the House races and targeting all my remaining money to the Senate.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:17 PM

8. Big money dumped into small districts will make it really hard

Corporate money can easily buy the smaller races to keep repubs in. That's going to be nearly impossible to overcome.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:17 PM

9. well written article

despite what he polls say, and the talking heads... i place a lot of value on what Politicians say candidly ... about a month or so ago Nancy Pelosi seemed rather confident in saying we will take back the house..

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:23 PM

10. I thought that the (hypothetical) Republican Congress was going to be the "ideological leadership"

and Romney was going to be their "Auto-Pen"?

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:28 PM

11. Unless...

... Democrats (real Democrats, not bluemutts) get over 60 Senate seats, I don't see how as it would make much of a difference.


Color me skeptical.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:40 PM

12. I Sure Wish Howard Dean Was Involved In The Process.......

with respect to the House and Senate - I really don't see much chatter here on DU or in the MSM regarding the prospects of the Dems taking back the House. I wish they would put a full court press on it.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 02:43 PM

13. Much of it will depend on the turnout for the top of the ticket...

If Repubs are not turned on by Mitt Romney, many will stay home and not vote at all. That would be unusual for the Republican Party. It is more common with the Democratic Party, in my opinion.

If there is a low turnout for Repubs and a good turnout for the Democrats, I could see the Democrats winning 35-40 seats, which would give them a good majority. It would also mean they would keep the Senate and the White House. The Democrats would get one more chance to fix it.

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 03:31 PM

14. maybe democrats could offer a vision and agenda worth voting for nt

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Response to phantom power (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 04:30 PM

16. We can district by district

And in the district I'm working in right now (to retake the House), it is a VERY winnable race. (The seat was held by a Democrat for 28 years until 2010 when he was replaced by a teabagger).

If you would like more information on how you can help out in this race, PM me.

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