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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:28 AM

Current swing State polls meaningless, don't forget the SuperPACs

Whatever the polls say now, and whatever Romney says now are not going to decide the election. After the Conventions, and thanks to Citizens United, there will be literally hundreds of millions spent by SuperPACs against Obama, especially in the swing States. We have never seen this amount of unaccountable money spent on an a election, and if you don't think it will matter; ask John Kerry, who did not have the funds to fight the Swiftboat lies the way they needed to be.
Not saying Obama will lose, just reminding us of what could be the deciding factor.


BTW: It would be different if we had a media that called out lies for what they are. but they don't.

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Reply Current swing State polls meaningless, don't forget the SuperPACs (Original post)
edhopper Aug 2012 OP
yellowcanine Aug 2012 #1
sofa king Aug 2012 #8
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #13
edhopper Aug 2012 #16
Johonny Aug 2012 #18
Johonny Aug 2012 #17
uponit7771 Aug 2012 #19
1-Old-Man Aug 2012 #2
edhopper Aug 2012 #6
NightWatcher Aug 2012 #3
Ian_rd Aug 2012 #4
uponit7771 Aug 2012 #21
abolugi Aug 2012 #5
AlinPA Aug 2012 #7
JaneyVee Aug 2012 #9
edhopper Aug 2012 #11
nc4bo Aug 2012 #10
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #12
bigdarryl Aug 2012 #14
edhopper Aug 2012 #15
uponit7771 Aug 2012 #20
edhopper Aug 2012 #22

Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:15 PM

1. I disagree. Fundamentally Romney is seen as unlikable and out of touch while Obama is seen as more

likable and more caring about the average person. No amount of money can change those basic perceptions. Only an economic disaster could change the fundamentals in Romney's favor at this point.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:26 PM

8. I concur with your dissent.

Just look at what really happened in Pennsylvania this week: the Obama campaign confidently stopped buying commercial time in that Commonwealth while the press is still calling it a "battleground state." That battle is over and won, despite voter suppression and ad bombardment. Romney's goons lost millions on Pennsylvania, and the Pennsylvania state legislature is going to get stomped for trying to steal it for Romney, too.

Toss in Romney's crash-landing in Europe, teabaggers prodding the GOP far outside of the mainstream, and every Republican in the Senate voting against a middle class tax cut in an election year, and this is looking like a beatdown not seen in decades, perhaps not for eighty years.

When voters realize they're going to have to pay out of their own pockets in higher taxes to elect a tax-dodging pathological liar who worships the wrong sky pixie, it's over.

There is little room for any more stakes in the Republican heart, but I'll toss in one more, courtesy of my unusually prescient better half: SHE HAS PROCLAIMED that home-stealer and health-care denier Pam Bondi is going to be Romney's VP nominee. Bondi has been the long arm of the worst governor in the country, Rick Scott, and has personally overseen all of the outrage that has happened there, including fighting the Affordable Care Act that just made life easier for millions of female Floridians.

If you think my guesses have been spot on these past two years, know this: my girlfriend has never been wrong about a single political prediction. Not once. She's the gold standard of train wreck spotting, and she's had her binoculars on Bondi for three months.

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:45 AM

13. well, economic reports on jobs can have a big influence

especially if in the months before the election unemployment creeps upward. The economy is not good and that is what is not helping Obama.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #13)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:55 AM

16. True

and hundreds of millions will be spent to drive that point home.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #13)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:27 AM

18. Of course Superpacs will be providing their own economic stimulus package

when they spend all that money

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Response to yellowcanine (Reply #1)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:26 AM

17. I think the Superpacs may unload at the district level to keep the house

they're going to spend that money. If Romney doesn't bounce big after the Republican convention and maintains 30 % likable numbers, I think these superpacs say screw it and go for congress crown instead. I think the Superpacs learned from 2010 not to waste money on dead horses and focus the money on district level races where people have no chance of countering.

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Response to Johonny (Reply #17)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:28 AM

19. +1

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:20 PM

2. It might be good to recall that the Super-PACs have been active for months

They have already been spending millions in the swing states and we still see the results we do. Romney has a big problem and any dissent at the Republican Convention, which the Paul family supporters will be more than happy to provide, will only add to his dismay.

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Response to 1-Old-Man (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 05:45 PM

6. I don't think we have seen

a fraction of what they are going to spend.

Their plan is not to make Romney more likable, but to make Obama undesirable.

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:24 PM

3. I think all the superpac ads are backfiring, many people are sick to death of political ads

and as a result will just stay home on Nov 6 to celebrate that on Nov 7 we can get back to regular tv commercials

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 01:51 PM

4. Any poll from a state that doesn't take into account voter purges and ID laws is inaccurate

And that includes Pennsylvania and Florida. A poll from those states should look something like Omaba 51% (minus estimated 6% for Voter ID disenfranchisement).

If these laws go through, the polls and the will of the voters might not be enough to elect the candidate that the majority of Americans prefer.

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Response to Ian_rd (Reply #4)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:29 AM

21. +1

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 03:20 PM

5. There comes a

saturation point where the ads just become annoying. I remember that from Whitmans campaign in CA
You just get tired of it and they stop being effective.

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:52 PM

7. "Hundreds of millions"? I'm looking for them to spend 10's of Billions. This is going to be

an all out effort in spending for Romeny by the SuperPACs. Tens of billions are not that much money for all those corporations and billionaires.

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:54 PM

9. True, but don't forget the debates either. Romney will be easily dismantled.

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Response to JaneyVee (Reply #9)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:37 AM

11. As Bush was in

2000 and 2004, how did that turn out?

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:57 PM

10. I am absolutely sick to death of these g'damn commercials.

Yea I know turn off the tv but I like to watch the local news, I like to watch night time MSNBC, I like to watch certain programs and it seems these foockers have bought every second of primetime or popular (or not) programming to insert this crap.

My biggest hope is that the sheer number of nasty ads - I'm speaking specifically about GOP superPACs, RNC and Romney LIE ads will piss off so many people that this strategy becomes an EPIC FAIL for the GOP and its' Citizens United win.

I hope these foocker lose a shit load of money in the process.

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:44 AM

12. I agree. Lots of $$ can still influence the election plus expect Romney to lead

in the polls after his VP pick (especially if it's Condi) and convention.

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Response to edhopper (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:47 AM

14. OH PLEASE!!! the President has his superpacs to

They might not be as much as the rethugs but he still has superpacs

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Response to bigdarryl (Reply #14)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 09:54 AM

15. The amounts are stagerringly

in the Romney's favor.

Oh Please, yourself.

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Response to edhopper (Reply #15)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:29 AM

20. Not to the degree where the Obama campaign wont be effective. The 800lb gorrila can beat the 600lb

...gorilla but it'll get all broken up doing so.

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Response to uponit7771 (Reply #20)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 10:50 AM

22. We will have to wait and see

I think it is more like the 800lb Gorilla and the 50lb calf.

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