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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 06:50 AM

Spanking New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll: Obama over Romney in 3 key swing states


(CBS News) President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida - and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above

<snip>

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57483962/obama-leads-romney-in-three-key-swing-states/

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Reply Spanking New Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT poll: Obama over Romney in 3 key swing states (Original post)
cali Aug 2012 OP
JustAnotherGen Aug 2012 #1
rocktivity Aug 2012 #3
UncleTomsEvilBrother Aug 2012 #2
Major Hogwash Aug 2012 #4
Ganja Ninja Aug 2012 #5
rocktivity Aug 2012 #6
ProSense Aug 2012 #7
RZM Aug 2012 #8
CoffeeCat Aug 2012 #10
RZM Aug 2012 #12
cthulu2016 Aug 2012 #9
spanone Aug 2012 #11

Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:11 AM

1. Very happy about

Ohio and Florida - but holding my breath on PA until after the voter ID lawsuit is settled. Not trying to be a deliberate Debbie Downer but it is "out there". I'm worried about the deliberate disenfranchisement of large swaths of the voting population that will most likely vote for Obama/Biden.

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Response to JustAnotherGen (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:13 AM

3. What I like about PA is that it butresses my theory

that Romney's sole ace in the hole -- his equal standing with Obama among independent voters -- cannot stand as long as he refuses to show his tax returns. This poll indicates that that nearly 60% of independents want to see them.


rocktivity

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Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 07:31 AM

2. I volunteered for the first time at the Obama Headquartes here in Florida.

Since I've started volunteering, you all can expect the Obama lead to widen. We don't even want Florida to be considered a possibility for Mitt.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:30 AM

4. Joe Scarbrow was crying about it this morning -- he said Romney sucks.

Scarbrow said the real problem is that Romney is running away from himself.
He said that FDR and Reagan knew who they were, and that is why they were so effective as candidates when they ran for the Presidency.
But, Scarbrow said that Romney won't even discuss the huge problems that he has with being Romney - he calls that problem, "the 3 M's".

He said Romney won't even mention --
his strong belief in his religion Mormonism,
his vast amount of Money,
or his time as the Governor of Massachusetts.

By jove, I think he's got it!
For the first time in his life, Scarbrow has put his finger on what is the major problem with Romney . . he sucks.

He said that Romney still has to release his tax returns, or he will never win any independents over to vote for him.
And the longer Romney waits to do it, the worse the situation becomes for Romney.



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Response to Major Hogwash (Reply #4)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:40 AM

5. Romney's running a campaign tailored to the Teabilly crazies ...

because that is what the GOP has become. And he was the best they had to offer this time around. Santorum, Bachmann and Gingrich would all be polling worse right now had any of them won. That's how f'ed up they are.

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Response to Ganja Ninja (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:02 PM

6. DING DING DING! Ganja Ninja, you're our grand prize winner!

Santorum, Bachmann and Gingrich would all be polling worse right now had any of them won.

I hate being an "I-told-you-so," but as far back as last September, I was saying that Rick Perry was the closest thing the GOP had to a viable candidate. (Oh, who am I kidding -- I LOVE being an I-told-you-so!")


rocktivity

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Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:06 PM

7. Here's a link

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Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:07 PM

8. PA is already out of reach for Romney

 

I suspect Florida will end up that way too. The only one of these he really has a shot in is Ohio and he's got a lot of work to do there if he wants to win it.

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Response to RZM (Reply #8)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 12:16 AM

10. Ohio will be tough for Romney

Ohio's unemployment is actually down and the state's general economic health is better than the nation as a whole. Ohio's employment health is, in large part, due to the revitalization of the auto industry. Many workers are back to work and jobs have been created.

Everyone in Ohio knows that Obama helped the auto industry and did so against very vocal Republicab critics who said the auto industry didn't deserve a bailout. Oh, how they whined and ripped at "cash for clunkers" and the auto bailout funds!

Mitt wrote a famous op-Ed piece, in which he came out strongly against an auto bailout and predicted that Obama's program would wreck the auto industry.

Well played, Mr President. I'm sure that Obama's campaign ads will continue to drive home Yhst Obama helped the auto industry snd Ohio--while Mittens made stupid, erroneous predictions that, if followed, would have sunk the state.

I don't think Romney has a chance in hell in Ohio.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #10)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 12:40 AM

12. I think he has a chance, but it's definitely less than 50 percent

 

Ohio frequently swings back and forth and usually goes with the winner Since Obama's most likely going to be the win, that will probably happen this time as well.

You're right about the auto industry, but this place does have deep Republican roots and is fairly socially conservative. Republicans have a comfortable margin in the statehouse and our Congressional delegation is heavily Republican as well.

I predict an Obama win, though not by a particularly large margin. He'll probably get something between 51 and 52 percent here. Even if Romney does win Ohio, he's still a long way from 270 without winning additional states that will be even tougher for him.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 12:10 PM

9. Most important thing in this polling set...

The Obama numbers in each state are closer to Obama's Favorability than to his Job Approval.

That's really what this election gets down to... whether it is a contest about favorability or job approval. That's the benefit of having an unlikeable opponent.

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Response to cali (Original post)

Thu Aug 2, 2012, 12:20 AM

11. k&r...

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