Gallup: GOP 2012 Battle to Date Most Akin to Dems in 2003.

[boxman15]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/151850/GOP-2012-Battle-Date-Akin-Dems-2003.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- The lead in the Republican nomination race has thus far changed seven times since May in Gallup polling. Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich each held the top spot at various points in 2011, with Romney's standing rising and falling as other candidates surged and faded.

Mike Huckabee led the Republican field, or tied Romney and Sarah Palin for the lead, in Gallup polls at the start of the year; however Huckabee and Palin ultimately declined to run.

The volatility in Republican preferences this year most closely resembles changes in Democrats' preferences in 2003 when Joe Lieberman, John Kerry, Tom Daschle (not an announced candidate), Dick Gephardt, Howard Dean, and Wesley Clark each had their turn as front-runner, before Kerry took command of the race at the start of the primaries in 2004. The lead changed hands nine times in Gallup polling throughout 2003.

This is the first presidential election since 1964 that the Republican Party has had so many candidates in serious contention for a nomination, although many of the shifts in national Republican preferences in the 1964 race occurred after the primaries began, rather than in the year leading up to it.

Nelson Rockefeller and Barry Goldwater were the only Republican front-runners in Gallup polling in 1963. Then, during the primary season in 1964, Richard Nixon, Henry Cabot Lodge, and William Scranton all emerged in the lead or tied for the lead, before Goldwater won the nomination at a hard fought convention.

The race for the 1988 Democratic nomination provides another example of high uncertainty about the party front-runner in the year prior to the start of the primaries. In 1987, the lead shifted between Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson. Hart also held the lead throughout January 1988 before Michael Dukakis emerged as the strong front-runner later in the season.

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I thought this was kind of interesting. Hugely contested and volatile primaries don't end well for the party struggling to pick a candidate, as 1964 showed for the GOP and 1988 and 2004 showed for the Democratic Party.

[Gman]

1. And in 64, 88 and 04, the party that didn't have the White House lost

But won it the next election. Until then, Obama has a lot of history in his favor.

[JoePhilly]

2. The article misses another very key point ...

The 2003 Dem race was nowhere near as rancorous as the current GOP primary. Moreover, most of the Dem candidates in 2003 were considered "acceptable" ... and none were really hated by a large percentage of the voters in that primary.

The GOP primary has both the rancor, and each of the candidates is truly seen as "unacceptable" by a descent chunk of the GOP primary voters. Mitt can't seem to get past 23% ... and each of the others has jumped to the front, only to crash and burn in a major way.

[boxman15]

3. That's very true, and works in the Democrats' favor in 2012.

President Obama is definitely the favorite right now.

[JoePhilly]

4. Hopefully, it stays that way.

I hope Ron Paul and Santorum finish above Romney in Iowa. That would keep the clown parade in motion.

[jaysunb]

5. +1 n/t

[Spazito]

8. Excellent points, very key points that were left out...

of the analysis.

[unblock]

6. aside from lieberman, any of the dems would have made a fine president

whereas the republicans are all clowns.

[JoePhilly]

9. Agree ...

Gallop seems to not notice that the current GOP candidates each have relatively large negative numbers with various parts of the GOP base.

And so the GOP is in even a greater hole then the 2003 dems were. As you note, most Dems found all of the Dem candidates "acceptable" (agree not Lieberman) ... but for the current GOP candidates that's not the case.

Which is good for us.

[musicblind]

7. But as soon as Kerry won Iowa, everybody else fell in line.

That might happen with the republicans. It might not.

But it would be odd to see, say, Paul or Santorum win Iowa and suddenly every other state goes for them.

No more dissent, just a crazy candidate.